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January 16, 2019 by Neil Christiansen Leave a Comment

2019 Economic Outlook

2019 Economic Outlook

Barry is back! Each January, Barry Habib, Founder and CEO of MBS Highway and mortgage & real estate market expert shares his economic outlook for the year ahead.

Barry’s 2019 economic outlook explains what dynamics are in place for this year, where the stock and bond markets are headed and the future direction of interest rates and housing.

2018 In Review

Prediction: Stocks will be toppy and vulnerable and there will be a significant stock market pullback in 2018.
Actual: Stocks were toppy and they did pull back significantly at the end of the year.

Prediction: Inflation will be tame in 2018 and the fed will tighten by hiking rates 1-2 times and reduce their balance sheet.
Actual: Inflation did remain tame and the Fed stopped reinvestments and reduced the balance sheet. They hiked rates 4 times.

Prediction: The 10-year-2year yield curve will flatten in 2018.
Actual: The yield curve flattened from 0.51 to 0.11. This is important looking forward as an inverted curve in 2019 may become a self fulfilling prophecy where fears and concerns could hurt stocks and help bonds.

Prediction: The 10-year will trade between 2.65% and 3.04% most of the year and mortgage rates would be 0.375% to 0.5% higher on average.
Actual: The 10-year did trade between 2.65% and 3.04% for 10 months of the year and mortgage rates did rise for most of the year within our predicted range.

Prediction: Our forecast for appreciation was for housing to be up to 4.5% to 5.5%.
Actual: For most of the year, housing was up greater than that – to over 7% at times –  but as the year came to an end home prices had risen nationally between 4.7% to 5.5% year over year.

2019 Economic Outlook Dynamics

  • China – Could there be a trade war?
  • US Economy – Is it slowing?
  • The Stock Market Pullback – How much and what will the impact be?
  • Rates Set to Rise – The Fed is indicating two rate hikes and is scheduled to further unwind its balance sheet. How much and what will the impact be?
  • Housing – Housing appears to be slowing. Is this a bad thing or will it regain its footing?
  • Inflation Rising with Oil Prices – We saw wages start to rise at the end of 2018 while oil prices took a big dip, helping inflation stay low overall. If they move back to more normal levels, will that pressure inflation?

Key Areas To Consider In 2019

1. Stocks

The 2019 economic outlook starts with a more normal market. With the Fed no longer artificially adding liquidity through the purchase of mortgage bonds and treasuries, we expect stocks to be choppy and volatile. The Feds are not the only ones draining liquidity – the European Central Bank is as well. This gives stocks a head wind at the start of 2019.

Although stocks will likely decline early in the year, they’ll find their footing with valuations coming down to realistic and sustainable levels. Barry thinks the stock market will reverse course after a very difficult 2018.

Barry’s Prediction: Stocks will end 2018 up 5% to 8%.

2. The Federal Reserve

Different this year, there will be a press conference at every Fed meeting. In the past, only every other meeting had press conference. Since the Fed historically has only changed interest rates where there was a press conference, this could add to increased speculation and volatility with the media covering every single detail and speculating what may or may not happen.

The 2019 Fed dot plot shows is showing that they are planning 2 hikes in the year ahead. The Fed will be concerned about rising inflation due to a combination of higher oil prices and wage pressures. These factors may influence the Fed to push interest rates higher unless we see a slowdown in the economy.

Barry’s Prediction: The Fed will hike 1 time to get the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) to 2.75% although they would love to get the FFR to 3%. The Fed stays on course to reduce the balance sheet.

3. Interest Rates

As we know, inflation is the main driver of rates, and inflation will likely tick higher with oil prices rebounding and increasing wages as 20 states are increasing their minimum wage in 2019. We think theses causes an uptick on the rate on inflation, Because of this, that pressures inflation a bit more – this is the enemy of interest rates.

Also pressuring the interest rate environment is the unwinding for the Fed’s balance sheet by $50 billion per month at the same time that our government has more borrowing needs due to the deficit. As our government puts out more paper (more supply) with less buying, bond prices will worsen which means an increase in interest rates.

Barry’s Prediction: The 10-year treasury note will trade between 2.75% and 3.25% for most of the year, with a high tick for the 10-Year at 3.5 percent.  30-year fixed mortgage rates will be in the 5% to 5.5% range for most of the year. This is slightly more than where we’re at now, but shouldn’t get out of hand.

4. Housing Market

The housing market has taken a beating in the media for a long time. It will have a rocky beginning with some areas doing well and some areas will do poorly. Overall we’ll see a slow start, but as the spring market starts to come around and stocks stabilize, folks will feel the wealth effect and be more confident about buying. Demographics are also favorable as there is more demand than supply. This points to a good housing market ahead.

Barry’s Prediction: Home appreciation in 2019 will fall in the 3.5% – 4% range. While less than last year, it will still create significant wealth.

We wish you and your families all the best for 2019. We wish you happiness, we wish you health and we wish you prosperity!

The information contained herein is general in nature and based on authorities that are subject to change. Churchill Mortgage guarantees neither the accuracy nor completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for results obtained by others as a result of reliance upon such information. Churchill Mortgage assumes no obligation to inform the reader of any changes that could affect information contained herein. This publication does not, and is not intended to, provide legal, tax or any other advice, and readers should consult their advisors concerning the application of tax laws to their particular situations.

Filed Under: Housing Trends, interest rates, Mortgage News Tagged With: 2019 economic outlook, housing market, interest rates

May 17, 2018 by Neil Christiansen 1 Comment

How To Organize Your Assets & Financial Accounts

financial accounts

Imagine this: something happens to you, and your investments or other financial accounts worth thousands of dollars sit untouched. They’re never used again, all because you never passed your financial accounts information on to anyone else.

Meanwhile, your family is applying for benefits, slogging through the probate process, guessing as best they can about which financial accounts you have (and what to do with each one), and trying to pay financial estate or income taxes.

When it comes to your financial accounts, it’s absolutely worth taking the time to gather all of your information in one place. Although it might seem tedious or even overwhelming, just think of the people you love and how much easier their work will be during such a trying time.

Today we’re walking you through how to organize your financial accounts, including each checklist you’ll need. Ready to begin?

It’s time for you to gather…

Your Estate Planning Documents

A revocable living trust is a common choice because it allows your loved ones to avoid court interference in both the event of your death and if you become incapacitated. If you have minor children, a judge can follow your wishes when appointing someone to raise your kids.

The truth is, there’s never a time that feels great to take care of a task like this, but consulting an experienced estate planning attorney sooner rather than later is a great idea.

Healthcare Documents

If your health takes a turn for the worse, make it clear which medications you’re taking. For each medication, create a list that includes:

  • Name of the medication
  • Dosage and frequency
  • Purpose of medication
  • Doctors names, phone numbers and specialties

Financial Information

You can make it simple for your designated family member or friend to quickly get a sense of your finances by making a list that includes:

  • Any sources of income and amounts
  • Your recurring bills with due dates
  • Your assets, including:
    • Banking and investment financial accounts
    • Retirement accounts
    • Life insurance policies.
    • Home, vehicles, and more
  • Debts: For items like mortgages, lines of credit, and credit cards, make a list that includes
    • Financial institutions
    • Account numbers
    • Phone numbers
    • Contact information

Computer Files & Online Account Access

The name of the game here is to make it easy for someone you trust to find your most important files and records. Clean off your desktop and leave a clearly-marked folder with a list of:

  • Online accounts
  • Passwords and login information
  • Payment dates and amounts for each bill you pay digitally

You’ll also want to protect yourself in the event your computer is stolen. Backup your files frequently on a secure hard drive.

Other Important Contacts & Documents

Some very important items don’t quite fall under an obvious category like debts or online bills, but don’t let this slip through the cracks when organizing your financial accounts.

Don’t Forget To Include Information About Your:

  • Attorney
  • Insurance Agent
  • CPA
  • Banker
  • Friends and associates who should be contacted in the event of your illness, injury or death
  • Miscellaneous key documents, which might include:
    • Recent tax returns
    • Birth certificates
    • Marriage licenses and divorce papers
    • Passports
    • Social security numbers
    • Military discharge/separation papers

Finally, it’s time to choose your trusted friend or family member to be in charge of all of this information if something were to happen to you. It’s a big job, so be sure to give it a lot of thought. In the future, your loved ones will be thankful they weren’t caught off guard.

*Disclaimer: Churchill Mortgage Corporation does not provide financial services or any other service apart from lending. You should always consult with your legal, tax and financial advisors to determine which strategy is the most suitable for your specific circumstances.

Filed Under: Personal Finance, Retirement Tagged With: Assets, estate planning, financial accounts

May 10, 2018 by Neil Christiansen Leave a Comment

7 Tips For Cell Phone Security

You’ve probably seen a few scary news headlines about data breaches and ID theft. Maybe you quickly added plenty of antivirus software to your desktop and laptop computers. But have you given much thought to how secure your smartphone is?

Cell phone security is more important than ever, as smartphone malware infections have jumped 96% from 2015 to 2016, according to the Nokia Threat Intelligence Report. 71% of phones have no security features to defend against this data-stealing software.

Today we’re sharing 7 tips to give you a jumpstart on cell phone security. Don’t wait another day to implement these simple tips!

1. Change Factory Defaults To Something Unique

No matter which kind of phone you buy, mobile hardware comes with a set of factory or default settings for things like passwords, personal identification numbers (PINs), and other information you’ll need to keep your cell phone security on point.

Be sure to change these factory defaults as soon as you can, choosing passwords and codes that are tough to guess, yet personal to you. Cell phone security best practices typically call for a mix of alphanumeric characters and symbols. Avoid passwords and PINs like “0000,” your birthdate, your children’s names, etc.

2. Stay On Top Of Updates

Set automatic updates when you can and stay up-to-date on the app store. To keep your cell phone security on point, make sure you’ve got the latest versions of your mobile device’s operating system, productivity apps, and cell phone security software like antivirus, anti-malware, and anti-phishing modules.

Enable the backup of your most-used files or documents to the much-safer cloud storage. Several mobile apps now include this option and also allow you to specify both the mode of data transfer and how frequently these backups happen. Whenever you need to, perform manual backups of your own using wireless data transfer (personal hotspot) or a USB linked to your laptop or desktop.

Just in case you ever fall victim to a device failure, malware infection, or data breach, these cell phone security safeguards will let you restore your mobile device to its former state.

3. Only Download Apps From Approved Sources

Downloading apps from the more official sources will always give you the best chance at keeping your cell phone security intact. These official channels include Google Play Store for Android and the App Store for iOS. While you’ll certainly still hear about apps riddled with malware, they’re still the most consistently reliable at vetting and reviewing the software they offer for download.

When it comes to third-party app stores or torrent websites, you’ll more often find yourself facing much-greater cell phone security risks. However, the official app providers do maintain a set of unofficially-approved third-party agents – stick to those when you must use a third-party channel.

4. Keep Your Guard Up When Using Public Wi-Fi

Free or low-cost public Wi-Fi is amazingly convenient, but don’t forget the go-to rules for maintaining your cell phone security. Never engage in financial transactions or any activity that calls for you to use personal or sensitive information. Sign out of everything when you’re finished. And if possible, use a Virtual Private Network (VPN) application or service.

5. Use Device Tracking

Your cell phone security system likely has a “find my phone” setting, and third-party apps are also available for device tracking. Using geotracking to monitor your phone’s location, you’ll have the option of sounding an alarm or remotely wiping your device’s data if it’s lost or stolen. Be sure this key feature is enabled!

6. Don’t Keep Essential Data Confined To Your Phone

Using cloud-based services and laptops, desktops, and tablets, it’s easier than ever to disperse your valued documents, photos, files, and other information across a range of devices. This way, if a single device has a security failure, you won’t lose everything.

7. Know How To Wipe Your Phone Remotely

If you’re an iPhone user and you have the “erase data” feature enabled, your iPhone will wipe everything from it after 10 unsuccessful passcode attempts. You can also use the “Find My iPhone” feature to remotely wipe your iPhone at any time. Got Family Sharing enabled? You can also remotely wipe the phone of any family member.

As an Android user, your “Find My Device” feature can remotely wipe all the personal information on your phone.

Cell phone security is always changing, but with these tried-and-true cell phone security precautions we’ve shared today, you’re much more likely to successfully keep your private data out of the hands of hackers.

*Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Citywide Home Loans does not provide any other service apart from lending. You should always consult with your legal, tax and financial advisors to determine which strategy is the most suitable for your specific circumstances.

Filed Under: Security

May 3, 2018 by Neil Christiansen Leave a Comment

Are Prime Membership Benefits Worth The Price Hike?

You may have first signed up for your Amazon Prime membership back in simpler days, when the membership benefits mainly included free two-day shipping. With Amazon’s recent announcement that its Prime membership fee would be jumping from $99 to $119 for everyone (even existing members) by June 15, and you might be wondering if the membership benefits are still worth it.

The answer will be different for everyone, but today let’s take a look at the Amazon Prime membership benefits – including some you may have overlooked.

Deliveries Made Easy – And Often Free!

  • Free two-day shipping on many items to addresses in the continental U.S. – with no minimum purchase amount. You’ll also get free no-rush shipping (which sometimes offers its own rewards) and standard shipping, too.
  • For orders over $35, your membership benefits include free same-day delivery by 9 p.m. (Some items are excluded.)
  • The Prime Now services offers free 2-hour delivery for tens of thousands of items to 30 cities, including Denver.
  • Free release-date delivery. You can pre-order items for delivery by 7 p.m. on the same day the items hit shelves.
  • Whole Foods delivery.
  • Amazon Key makes deliveries to your car. Millions of items can be delivered to 2015 model year or newer Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, Cadillac and Volvo models. It’s available in several cities, including Denver.

Shopping Perks

Did you know Amazon has physical locations like book stores (which your membership benefits give you discounts on) and 2,000 lockers in more than 50 cities?

Here are some other membership benefits that come with Prime:

  • Amazon payment cards
    • The Visa signature card, offers 5 percent back on Amazon and Whole Foods purchases, 2 percent back at restaurants and 1 percent back on other purchases.
    • The Synchrony Bank card includes 5 percent back on Amazon purchases, and great financing and interest rates.
  • Dash buttons. With both physical or virtual versions of this button, you simply push it whenever you’d like to reorder a certain product.
  • Discounts on baby products. Prime membership benefits include 15% off items on a baby registry, 20% off several different types of diapers, baby food subscriptions, and more.
  • Access Amazon’s daily deals 30 minutes early.
  • More Prime-exclusive membership benefits:
    • Amazon fashion brands.
    • Exclusive household brands.
    • Gourmet food brands.

Streaming Benefits

Since Amazon Prime Video was launched in 2011, Amazon has elevated streaming to a central part of its business model. Here are some membership benefits Prime members enjoy.

Prime Video. You’ll get unlimited streaming of movies and TV episodes, including Thursday Night Football for the next two seasons. Prime Video also lets you download videos, and this service can also be purchased on its own.

Prime Music. Ad-free access to more than a million songs, playlists, and personalized stations. With Amazon’s app, you can play the music offline, too.

Twitch Prime. Through this video live game streaming service, Prime members get discounts on games, pre-orders and new releases, ad-free viewing, free exclusive content, and a free Twitch monthly channel subscription.

Reading Bonuses

Prime member benefits offer reading perks. If you own a Kindle e-reader you can even create a lending library.

  • Prime Reading. You can borrow up to 10 digital books at a time. Choose from more than 1,000 books, magazines and comics. This doesn’t require a Kindle, just the Kindle app.
  • Washington Post free trial. Skip the paywall and enjoy a six-month free trial of The Washington Post.
  • Amazon First Reads. This program’s membership benefits include a new book every month, based on what Amazon’s early-access picks. You’ll also get discounts on hardcover books.

But Wait, There’s More Membership Benefits

  • Concerts. Amazon prime membership benefits include Prime Live Events, which kicked off in 2017 with a U.K. Blondie concert.
  • Prime Photos. Get unlimited photo storage and 5 GB of storage for other files for you and 5 people.
  • Amazon Channels. Stream HBO, Showtime and Starz for $4.99-$14.99 a month.
  • Prime Pantry. A great way to order small, lighter objects like groceries and household items, a single order is available to any Prime member for $7.99 shipping. Or, pay $4.99/month for free shipping on orders over $40.
  • Audible. For $14.95/month, Amazon Prime membership benefits certain playlists or “channels” for free on the Audible app. You’ll also get 3 free audio books when you sign up for an Audible trial.
  • Amazon Music Unlimited. It features tens of millions of songs, downloads, and unlimited skips for an extra $7.99/month. Family plans are $14.99/month, and the Echo plan streams to one Alexa device for $3.99/month.
  • Membership sharing. No more sneaking around sharing your password! You can share certain aspects of your Prime membership with up to 10 people: two adults, four teens and four children.
  • Do you love being in-the-know about the latest offerings? Amazon Prime membership benefits include being the first to try new services and programs before they’re open to the public.

What do you think, will you keep your Prime Membership active, even with the price jump? With all these amazing membership benefits available, we’ll definitely be keeping ours.

*Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Citywide Home Loans does not provide any other service apart from lending. You should always consult with your legal, tax and financial advisors to determine which strategy is the most suitable for your specific circumstances.

Filed Under: Family, Personal Finance

April 26, 2018 by Neil Christiansen 1 Comment

Buying a Home? 7 Things To Know About Your Purchase Contract

With all the exciting steps involved in buying a home, questions often come up about the purchase contract itself. The purchase contract is so important in the process, yet it might contain terms that seem like another language – until you understand how all the parts work together perfectly.

Today we’re walking you through 7 things you’ll need to know about your purchase contract – and what’s most likely to happen in the unlikely event you decide not to proceed with buying the home, after all.

The Earnest Money Deposit

Earnest money deposit is the cash you’ll need to come up with immediately. It’s a way to commit to the sale and demonstrate to the sellers that you’re seriously interested in this home. The exact amount of your earnest money will typically run between 1% and 2% of the purchase price.

When your offer is accepted, this money is held in an escrow account by the seller’s broker or a title company and is a credit towards the final negotiated purchase price. (Never give your earnest money directly to the seller.)

Purchase Contract Contingencies

A contingency means there’s something the buyer has to make happen before the process can proceed, like selling the home they already own. Contingencies in the purchase contract let you back out of the sale if something goes wrong without losing your earnest money.

Every contingency will come with a deadline that must be met to keep things moving. Here are three common contingencies included in the purchase contract.

1. Loan Commitment Deadline

This is the date by which your home loan must be approved by the lender and the commitment letter is issued.

Complications sometimes arise when a loan commitment isn’t “clean,” meaning there are still outstanding issues to be cleared up or documents to be presented to the sellers. If these problems arise after the mortgage commitment date, the buyer’s deposits may be lost.

2. Appraisal Objection Deadline

On or before the appraisal objection deadline, the buyer must give the seller notice if the appraisal has come in under the purchase price of the home. If this happens, the parties have a couple options; the seller can come down in price to match the appraised value, the buyer can bring the difference in cash to closing or they can terminate the contract.

3. Inspection Objection Deadline

Typically, home inspection contingencies are part of the purchase contract. This is to protect the buyer in the event that a defect is found during in the inspection. Based on the results of a home inspection, the homebuyer can try to negotiate any necessary repairs or ask for a reduced purchase price to compensate for the cost of the repairs.

If the inspection uncovers significant defects, you may consider cancelling the sale. Any of these items require action on behalf of the buyer prior to the inspection objection deadline.

Settlement or Closing Date

The buyers and sellers usually negotiate a closing (settlement) date, for all involved parties meet to make the sale of the home official. It’s best to choose a date that gives you plenty of time to take care of your loan approval, home inspection, appraisal, and any other contingencies.

New Home Possession Date

New homeowners typically take possession of their new property on the date of closing. Although that doesn’t mean this is always the case. Keep in mind that the possession date is negotiable, and can affect the strength of your offer.

If the seller needs extra time to find a new place to live, offering a possession date that’s further out could make your bid more attractive. On the other hand, sellers sometimes allow buyers to move in before settlement if the house is already empty.

What If You Want Out Of The Purchase Contract?

Before you sign any legal documents ask how you can cancel if things don’t work out the way you hope or if you change your mind. Read through the contract and ask your agent to point out to you the cancellation clauses. There are a number of contingencies that allow you to back of the purchase contract without losing your earnest money.

If your reasons for halting the sale fall outside those contingencies, however, the sellers will usually get to keep the earnest money and could be awarded damages from profits they lost after ultimately selling the property at a lower price.

Knowledge Is Power!

The homebuying process is often full of exciting milestones as well as disappointing bumps in the road. Being familiar with your purchase contract and the process itself will help you in making the best decisions. Happy house hunting!

*Disclaimer: Churchill Mortgage Corporation does not provide real estate services or any other service apart from lending. You should always consult with your legal, tax and financial advisors to determine which strategy is the most suitable for your specific circumstances.

Filed Under: Housing Trends, Real Estate

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